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呢個網站係唔 #8217 嘅。. 請閱讀. 毫無疑問, 在任何人同 #8217 嘅頭腦, 世界同呢個國家係在動盪的每一個回合. 有強烈的前景內戰或如果你中意, 一場革命. 同樣嘅事情, 我想. Now talk from an expert about an imminent invasion. The way Asia is its a distinct possibility. We have North Korea misbehaving and Peking backing them. It begs a question doesn’t it, why kiss China’s butt so solidly. The one thing that you can be sure of is all these useless bloody snowflakes and do gooders will be running for a safe space. Sorry to have to disillusion you lot of pansies but there wont be any anywhere.

‘We are plunging headlong into catastrophe’: Ex-Defence Force chief says nuclear crisis in North Korea and naval clashes in the South China Sea mean Australia could be INVADED

  • Australia will soon be invaded, former Australian Defence Force chief claims
  • Admiral Chris Barrie said conditions are similar to those that led to WW1
  • ‘Australia is plunging headlong into catastrophe,’ Mr Barrie said

Australia is plunging headlong into catastrophe and we are utterly unprepared. 講真, we may be past the time when we can prepare.

The time-bomb is ticking and it will explode in our lifetimes.

All certainty will be lost, our economy will be devastated, our land seized, our system of government upended.

This isn’t mere idle speculation or the rantings of a doomsday cult, this is the warning from a man who has made it his life’s work to prepare for just this scenario.

克里斯. 巴里上將係澳洲嘅首領, #8217 的防衛力量 1998 和 2002.

他目睹了戰爭, 並派遣軍隊參戰。.

現時, 他說, 我哋夢遊緊嘅衝突, 將改變世界, 因為我哋知道佢.

澳洲, 佢話, 將被入侵. 他擔心佢嘅孫仔會繼承呢個國家。.

歷史 #8217 唔重覆, 但押韻



我採訪佢係為左得到佢對北韓核威脅的評估, 但他的恐懼遠遠超出了隐士王國.

超過泡菜同牛肉片, 巴里上將帶領我穿過我們的區域 #8217 好多棘網.

誤判或誤解, 佢話, 可以畀我哋貼士, 國家將被撐到角落裡, 我哋而家冇辦法談論我們的出路.

係嚟自我哋過去嘅警告, 如果不予理會, 會粉碎我們的未來.

History doesn’t repeat but it does rhyme.

That quote is often attributed to the great American writer Mark Twain, but its sentiment speaks to us through the ages.

History can appear as inevitable even as we fail to see it.

The French diplomat and political scientist, Alexis de Tocqueville, said of the French Revolution:

Never was any such event, stemming from factors so far back in the past, so inevitable and yet so completely unseen.

In a new century, simmering tensions and geo-strategic alliances would tip the world into all-out war.

Historian Christopher Clarke’s book Sleepwalkers reveals how the assassination of Habsburg heir, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, on June 28 1914 in Sarajevo triggered a domino effect that pitted the reigning global power Britain against the rising Germany.

The world thought it couldn’t happen — Germany and Britain were each other’s single biggest trading partners; the royal families were blood relatives — yet it did.

How? Clark says political leaders become hostage to events.

Causes trawled from the length and breadth of Europe’s pre-war decades are piled like weights on the scale until it tilts from probability to inevitability,” 佢寫.

Admiral Chris Barrie says he has been reading Clark’s book and thinking how events then mirror events now.

He is not the only one.

The Thucydides Trap

archduke ferdinand

Thucydides Trap. Allison coined the phraseThucydides Trapto refer to when a rising power causes fear in an established power which escalates toward war. Thucydides 写: “What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta.

Founding dean of the Harvard University Kennedy School, Graham Allison, fears the world is lurching towards conflict unseen since World War II.

He puts his case in a new book, Destined for War: Can America and China escape ThucydidesTrap?

Thucydides? He was the Greek Historian whose writings about war 2,000 years ago resonate still.

It was the rise of Athens and the fear this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable,” he writes.

Then it was Athens-Sparta. 在 1914 it was Germany-Great Britain and now China-United States.

As far ahead as the eye can see, the defining question about global order is whether China and the US can escape Thucydides’s trap. Most contests that fit this pattern have ended badly,” Allison writes.

On the current trajectory, Allison says, war isnot just possible, but much more likely than currently recognised”.

Any clash between the US and China is potentially catastrophic, but as much as we may try to wish it away, right now military strategists in Beijing and Washington are preparing for just an eventuality.

Global think tank the Rand Corporation prepared a report in 2015 for the American military, its title could not have been more direct — War with China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable.

It concluded that China would suffer greater casualties than the US if war was to break out now. 然而, it cautioned, that as China’s military muscle increased so would the prospect of a prolonged destructive war.

Where would such a conflict spark?

The entire Asia region is a tinderbox.

Historian Michael Auslan, thinks Asia is so potentially unstable and insecure that he has questioned the very future of the region in his new book, The End of the Asian Century.

War and economic stagnation are the two biggest risks, Auslan identifies.

Here be dragons,” he writes.

Mr Auslan reminds us the Asia-Pacific is the most militarised region in the world, it’s home to some of the world’s largest armies, technologically advanced fighting machines, nuclear armed states and added to that a massive American military presence.

To the military muscle add the incendiary mix of history: old bitter enmities, existential stand offs, and a fierce competition for scarce resources.

The faultlines are many: India-Pakistan, North and South Korea, China-Japan.

Much of these simmering tensions coalesce around territorial disputes notably the Diaoyu-Senkaku islands claimed by Japan and China and the islands of the South China Sea.

It is these disputes that most observers fear could escalate.

China has dredged up sand to expand the islands, building runways and harbours potentially to deploy fighter jets and war ships.

Mr Auslan points out that militarising the islands not only allows China to project power but bolsters legal claims of territorial control.

The US has demanded the right of freedom of navigation through the islands and to fly over the disputed territory.

Tension has ebbed and flowed, at one point in 2016, a Chinese state-run newspaper declared war asinevitable”.

But is it?

Has the first ‘shotalready been fired?

Some fear the war has already begun — in cyberspace.

The US reports massive hacking by groups controlled by the Chinese military.

在 2015 the Obama administration revealed that Chinese hackers had hacked government personnel files potentially exposing every US state employee.

But what of a shooting war?

Certainly the world is very different to the time of Thucydides.

Even compared to 1914, we are a more interconnected, economically entwined global community.

Since the 1960’s peace in Asia has allowed unprecedented growth.

Chinese scholar Wu Zurong, in a 2015 article for Foreign Policy magazine called No Thucydides Trap, 關於全球化和中美之間嘅聯繫如何緩解戰爭嘅文.

中國, 佢寫, 尋求 “現代關係 … 雙贏的局面”.

喺美國嘅演講中, 在 2015 中國 #8217 總統, 習近平, 談到了兩個大國促進全球安全嘅機會, 但他也發出了警告.

“如果佢哋進入衝突或對抗, 就同兩囯同成個世界帶來災難,” 佢話.


This week he joined with fellow Australian National University scholars, Roger Bradbury and Dmitry Brizhinev, for an article in The Conversation that measured what they termedhawkishness— a preparedness for war — with risk.

They found that a little bit of risk aversion significantly increases the chances of peace.

Hawkishness alone”, they wrote, “will not lead to war unless risk aversion is also low.

Simply put, how willing are countries to avoid war? How much do they fear the consequences?

Risk on the rise

In Asia there are many unknowables. Who is prepared to say for certain, that Kim Jong-un will not launch a nuclear strike?

Would a downed plane in the South China Sea push China and the US over the brink?

Would an attack in Kashmir bring the nuclear armed stand-off between India and Pakistan to the brink?

What would happen in Taiwan declared independence?

What’s to stop any of this happening?

As Mr Auslan writes:

Risk that should be falling is instead rising. As Asia’s nations become wealthier and have more resources to devote to their militaries, they seem less interested in avoiding confrontation.

Personally, as someone who has reported across Asia for two decades and lived many years in China, I err on the side of peace.

America is crucial to the stability of the region and we cannot afford for it to retreat or to weaken its resolve. I don’t believe it will.

China for all its military build-up, knows it still cannot compete with US firepower.

Yet, people with far more experience in matters of war than I, fear the worst. People like Admiral Chris Barrie.

How does Allison answer his question: can America and China escape the Thucydides trap?

He believes our fate depends on realism on all sides, vital interests must be clearly defined, America must strengthen its democracy and China address its failures of governancethreats come from within.

There is a need, he writes, for great thinkers to devise a grand strategy.

Allison concludes with a quote not from Thucydides but Shakespeare, 我哋嘅命運在於 “唔喺我哋嘅星球上, 但系我自己”.




呢個網站可以證實中國黑客的純粹程度. 80% 所有嘅嘗試都來自中國

來源: abc.net.au


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